The 2025 Belmont Stakes, final jewel of the Triple Crown, returns on June 7th—this time from Saratoga Race Course, while Belmont Park undergoes renovation. The race will be contested at 1¼ miles, echoing the Kentucky Derby’s distance rather than its traditional 1½ miles.
A $2 million purse and the altered setup draw a competitive field, setting the stage for a race rich in pace strategy, stamina tests, and potential rivalries.
Early morning line odds offer a first glimpse at how the betting public views the likely contenders, framing the narratives, questions, and momentum heading toward the winner’s circle.
The Anticipated Showdown: Sovereignty and Journalism
Heading the odds board are the top two finishers from the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty and Journalism. Sovereignty holds the favoured position at 8-5 odds, reflecting confidence in his commanding Kentucky Derby victory and his connections’ strategic decision.
Sovereignty’s Strategic Rest
Trained by Bill Mott for Godolphin, Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness Stakes, opting for a five-week rest period. His pedigree, sired by Into Mischief, suggests versatility, while his dam contributes stamina, fitting for the 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga.
A recent workout at Saratoga indicates he is in prime form. For those looking to place a bet at FanDuel, Sovereignty’s odds reflect the calculated rest and preparation, giving him a slight edge in the market.
Choosing to skip the Preakness allows Sovereignty to arrive at Saratoga well-rested, having not raced since his Kentucky Derby win on May 3, 2025. This approach mirrors past successful campaigns where trainers have prioritised spacing out races for longevity and peak performance in the Belmont.
Journalism’s Preakness Resilience and Fatigue Question
Journalism’s gutsy rally in the Preakness, overcoming bumping and traffic issues on May 17, 2025, highlighted his resilience and strong closing speed. Nevertheless, the rigorous five-week Triple Crown timeline and the intense demands of his Preakness run cast doubt on his stamina as he approaches yet another classic race.
Following closely is Journalism, the 9-5 second choice. The runner-up in the Derby, he delivered a breathtaking performance to win the Preakness Stakes just two weeks later. Despite navigating traffic and a contentious incident at the top of the stretch, Journalism rallied from five lengths back to win.
His trainer, Michael McCarthy, is evaluating his condition after running in two Triple Crown races in quick succession. Journalism’s Curlin pedigree suggests he possesses the necessary stamina for the distance.
The Promising Challenger: Baeza
Positioned as the clear third choice on the odds board is Baeza, listed at 7-2. This colt brings strong credentials into the Belmont, having finished third in the Kentucky Derby, just a neck behind Journalism. Similar to Sovereignty, Baeza bypassed the Preakness Stakes, ensuring he arrives at the Belmont Stakes well-rested.
His pedigree is particularly noteworthy; he is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mage (2023) and Belmont winner Dornoch (2024), suggesting a strong genetic inclination for classic distances. His connections, including trainer John Shirreffs, are hopeful he can emulate his half-brother Dornoch’s success at Belmont. Baeza finished second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby prior to his Derby effort.
Rodriguez: The Mid-Range Contender
Moving into the mid-range odds, Rodriguez is listed at 6-1. Trained by Bob Baffert, Rodriguez is a Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner who showed early speed in that victory. However, he missed both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness due to a foot issue. While reportedly back in training, his form is less certain than those who have competed in recent Triple Crown races. His absence introduces a degree of uncertainty.
After winning the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez was scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a bruised foot. He was also not quite ready in time for the Preakness. While back in training, proving he is fully recovered and race-fit against top competition after missing significant time remains his primary challenge.
Hill Road’s Late Season Surge
Hill Road demonstrated his preparedness for the Belmont distance and track with his Peter Pan Stakes victory at Aqueduct. His powerful closing effort in that race indicates he is hitting peak form heading into the final jewel of the Triple Crown, positioning him as a potential threat with favourable race dynamics.
Hill Road is available at 10-1 odds. This colt solidified his Belmont credentials with a powerful closing run to win the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes on May 10, 2025, a designated Belmont prep race. He missed the Wood Memorial due to a fever, but appears to be peaking at the opportune moment.
Trained by Chad Brown, his pedigree and recent form make him a viable contender, particularly for exotic wagering. He would likely have competed in the Derby if not for the missed start in the Wood Memorial.
Longshots and Wildcards
Several other horses appear on the odds board or are mentioned as possible starters, rounding out the field and offering longshot appeal. Heart of Honour, an English-bred colt, is listed at 20-1. He finished fifth in the Preakness after a slow start in his U.S. debut. Shipping to Saratoga, his pedigree suggests stamina for the distance, but adapting to the track and race dynamics will be key.
Other potential contenders include Final Gambit, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness. While still a candidate for the Belmont, he might target the Matt Winn Stakes instead. His consistent performances and tactical speed make him a potential spoiler. Crudo, an overlooked contender, hasn’t raced in Triple Crown events but recently captured the $100K Sir Barton Stakes during the Preakness undercard, indicating promise for the 1 1/4-mile distance.
Sandman, who was third in the Preakness, is listed as a possible starter by NYRA, but his trainer intends to skip the Belmont in favour of the Jim Dandy Stakes. Gosger, who finished second in the Preakness, was initially mentioned as a possible starter but has since been confirmed to skip the race.
Distance, Track, and Pace Implications
The decision to run the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga significantly impacts the race’s profile compared to the traditional 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion” at Belmont Park. This shorter distance at a different venue favours horses with tactical speed and stamina.
The contrast between horses like Sovereignty and Baeza, who enjoyed significant rest by skipping the Preakness, and battle-tested runners like Journalism, who ran in both previous legs, is a major factor the odds reflect. The presence of horses with early speed, such as Crudo, could influence the pace, potentially benefiting closers.
The configuration of the Saratoga track for the 1 1/4-mile distance will test different attributes than the vast Belmont oval, emphasising adaptability and the ability to handle turns and shorter straightaways effectively.
What Can We Expect
When analysing the 2025 Belmont Stakes, looking beyond just which horse has the lowest odds is crucial. The morning line offers a snapshot of public and expert perception, but it also highlights the underlying narratives: the potential for a compelling rematch between Derby winner and Preakness victor, the classic debate of rest versus race fitness, and the presence of well-bred, rested challengers like Baeza seeking to make their mark.
The odds assigned to horses like Rodriguez and Hill Road reflect their potential to disrupt the expected order based on past performances and recent form. For informed fans, the odds serve as a starting point to delve into each contender’s story – their preparation, pedigree, and demonstrated abilities – providing a deeper understanding of the strategic decisions and physical realities that shape the field for this unique running of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
