Want to learn how to lay the draw? Did you know that over 75% of English Premier League matches don’t end in a draw? The statistics show that just 23% of games finish level, which makes laying the draw one of the most appealing betting strategies for smart traders.
Smart betting isn’t about picking random matches and hoping to get lucky. Most football traders begin their first steps with the lay the draw system because it’s easy to understand and implement with the right approach.
My years of experience in refining this strategy have taught me the best methods. I’ll show you exactly how to spot the best opportunities, manage your trades, and build consistent profits. This piece walks you through everything you need to know about laying the draw effectively, whether you’re new to betting exchanges or want to improve your current approach.
Want to learn how to turn these statistics into profitable trades? Let’s take a closer look at the process.
What Is Lay the Draw and Why It Works
“Lay betting is an option on a betting exchange which allows you to take the same position as a traditional bookmaker, by offering odds.” — Smarkets Help Centre, Betting exchange platform
Lay the draw stands out as one of the simplest yet most effective betting strategies you can use on exchanges today. The strategy works because football matches rarely end in a draw.
Understanding betting exchanges
Traditional bookmakers limit you to backing outcomes – you can only bet that something will happen. Betting exchanges changed everything by letting you both back and lay bets.
Platforms like Betfair let you bet against other people instead of a bookmaker. This creates a marketplace where users can offer and take bets on different outcomes, including football matches.
You get more control over your betting on exchanges. You can pick your odds, choose your risk level, and adjust your positions as the game unfolds. These platforms usually give you better odds than regular bookmakers because they take smaller cuts.
Money available in the market – called liquidity – makes a big difference in exchange betting. Good liquidity means your bets match quickly at competitive odds. Premier League matches see millions in bets on the Match Odds market, making them perfect for lay strategies.
The concept of laying bets
A lay bet means you’re betting something won’t happen. With a lay the draw, you bet against a match ending in a draw. This gives you two ways to win (either team winning) and just one way to lose (the draw).
You become the bookmaker when you place a lay bet. You offer odds on the draw happening, and if it doesn’t, you keep what the other person bet. But if the match ends in a draw, you pay them their stake multiplied by the decimal odds.
You need to know about liability in lay betting. Your liability shows the most you could lose: Stake × (Lay odds – 1) = Liability. Let’s say you lay the draw at 3.4 odds with a £10 stake. Your liability would be £24 (£10 × (3.4 – 1)). That’s the worst case, while you can only win the £10 stake.
Lay the draw works because:
- Only about 25% of football matches end in a draw
- Goals happen in about 92% of all football matches
- Premier League matches end in draws roughly 27% of the time
These numbers show why this strategy can work well.
How draw prices move during matches
Lay the draw really shines when you understand how markets change during live matches. This isn’t just about betting against draws before kickoff – it’s about profiting from price changes when goals go in.
Goals change everything. When a team scores, their odds drop by a lot. The other team’s odds and draw odds jump up. Smart traders use these predictable changes to make money.
Here’s a real example: You lay the draw at 3.4 before the match. A goal goes in, and draw odds jump to 5.0 or higher. Now you can “trade out” by backing the draw at these better odds. This locks in profit no matter what happens. Modern exchanges make this easy with “cash out” buttons that do the math for you.
Getting your timing right matters. Goals scored later push draw odds higher, which means bigger profits.
Some challenges exist though. If an underdog scores first against a strong team, the market often expects the favorite to score back. Draw odds might not rise enough to make good profits. Good traders know how to handle these situations. They might wait for equalizers or use backup plans.
This strategy works because it matches how football games usually play out and how betting markets respond to goals. Once you understand these patterns and choose the right matches, you can develop a solid approach to football trading that makes the most of these market moves.
Essential Tools for Lay Betting Strategy
The right tools can make the difference between occasional wins and steady profits in a lay the draw strategy. Let’s get into three simple components you need to become skilled at before your first lay bet.
Betting exchange accounts
Betting exchanges are your go-to platform for lay betting strategies since traditional bookmakers don’t support lay bets. These exchanges let bettors connect directly with each other. You can back or lay outcomes while the exchange only takes a commission on winning bets.
Betfair and Smarkets stand out as the top exchanges for lay the draw betting. Each brings something different to the table:
Betfair stands as the biggest and oldest exchange with better liquidity, which really matters for in-play trading where every second counts. Their markets usually have more money available, especially in less popular matches. They started with a 5% commission, but now you can get a 2% rate through their Betfair Rewards ‘Basic’ package.
Smarkets keeps things simple with a flat 2% commission rate that could boost your profits over time. Their user-friendly interface and tech features like automatic stake updates during odds changes make trading easier.
You should open accounts with both exchanges because:
- You’ll have a backup if one platform has technical problems
- You can find better odds across different liquidity pools
- Each platform has unique features worth using
Once you register, verify your identity and make your first deposit using debit cards, e-wallets, or bank transfers.
Football statistics websites
Analytical insights drive successful match selection for lay the draw betting. Football stats websites help you spot profitable opportunities.
TheStatsDontLie.com gives you detailed statistics across 130 leagues worldwide. The platform shows data about both teams scoring, over/under goals, and other key metrics that affect draw probability. This helps you focus on leagues with fewer draws.
KickoffProfits specializes in lay the draw stats and trends with daily updates for major and minor competitions. The platform shows “True Odds” based on three seasons of historical data, so you can compare actual betting prices with exchange offerings.
Most stats sites let you filter by:
- League patterns (draw percentages vary significantly between leagues)
- Team scoring habits (teams that score and concede often make great candidates)
- Head-to-head stats (some matchups always produce goals)
GoalProfits includes a Live Stats Module that shows which teams actively try to score – this knowledge helps you decide the best time to exit positions.
Bankroll management spreadsheets
Smart bankroll management forms the foundations of successful lay betting. Even the best strategy fails without proper money management.
You must track every bet to succeed at lay the draw. Your spreadsheet needs to show:
- Date, teams, and competition
- Pre-match draw odds and lay stake
- Liability and potential profit
- Match outcome and actual profit/loss
- Running totals to track performance
For stakes, a fixed percentage method works well – each bet uses the same percentage of your total bankroll. Pro bettors suggest limiting each lay bet to 1-3% of your total bankroll while testing your strategy.
GoalProfits provides a free Hedging Calculator that makes it easy to set perfect stakes when trading out after goals. This tool shows exactly how much to stake when backing the draw at higher odds to secure profits whatever the final score.
These tools – exchange accounts, stats websites, and bankroll tracking systems – set you up for a profitable lay the draw strategy that’s both disciplined and consistent.
Setting Up Your Lay the Draw System
“Sports Betting is all about money management, so the most money won on one bet is not the most important thing.” — Bruce Dern, American actor and sports bettor
Money management forms the bedrock of successful lay betting. You need more than just knowledge of concepts and tools. A resilient system will help you ride out the inevitable ups and downs of sports trading while steadily growing your profits.
Creating a trading bank
A trading bank represents money you set aside just for betting. This amount should never exceed what you can afford to lose. You must keep this fund completely separate from your everyday money. This separation prevents emotional decisions and lets you track your results accurately.
Here’s the quickest way to structure your bank:
- Open a separate bank account just for your betting activities
- Pick a starting amount you won’t miss if you lose it
- Divide your bank into 100 points to set your staking unit
- Calculate your point value (e.g., £1,000/100 = £10 per point)
This point-based approach creates distance between you and your money. It encourages a more analytical investment mindset. Plus, it helps you adjust stakes as your bank grows or shrinks.
Your betting exchange account doesn’t need all your bank money at once. You’ll trade with just a small portion, so the rest can earn interest elsewhere.
Determining stake sizes
Stake sizing ranks among the most crucial yet personal choices in lay betting. New traders using lay the draw should stick to 1% of their trading bank per trade until they prove their selection methods work.
Seasoned traders might go up to 5% on their best trades. This increase should happen only after showing consistent success with smaller stakes. Professional traders suggest sticking to 1-2% stakes for a long time. Even after your strategy shows it works long-term, take it slow.
Base your stake on the worst that could happen—your maximum possible loss. Therefore, cut your stake to 1-3% when you’re less certain or when the odds look less attractive.
Top traders often use different stake levels:
- Higher stakes (3-5%) for perfect conditions
- Medium stakes (2-3%) for solid opportunities
- Lower stakes (1%) for testing new strategies or leagues
Note that you should update your point value monthly as your bank changes. This adjustment lets stakes naturally follow your results.
Calculating liability
Liability sits at the heart of lay betting. Back betting risks only your stake, but lay betting carries variable liability based on the odds.
The math is simple: Liability = Stake × (Lay odds – 1). Let’s say you lay the draw at 4.0 odds with a £200 stake. Your liability comes to £600 (£200 × (4.0 – 1)). You’ll lose this amount if the match ends in a draw.
Many lay the draw traders plan their exits before jumping in. Your actual risk might be much lower than full liability if you plan to exit at specific odds. Take that same £200 stake at 4.0 odds but exit at 2.0—your maximum loss drops to £200 instead of £600.
Betting exchanges won’t let you place bets without enough money to cover your full liability. They’ll lock this amount from your balance until the bet settles. Multiple lay bets on different outcomes in one market split your liability since they can’t all lose.
Double-check your liability before confirming any lay bet. Small mistakes in odds selection can blow up your exposure. Misclicking between 4.1 and 41 odds could wreck you financially if your lay bet loses.
How to Select the Right Matches
Your lay the draw strategy’s success depends on picking the right matches. Many traders pick games randomly without analyzing them properly and then feel frustrated when they lose money.
Team scoring patterns
You need teams with specific goal patterns to trade and lay the draw successfully. The home teams should score at least 1.5 goals per game (1.8+ would be ideal) and let in less than 1.25 goals per game. The away teams should score less than 1.25 goals while letting in more than 1.5 goals per game.
Teams also score goals at specific times during matches. Some teams score right after halftime, which makes them great picks for second-half lay strategies. You should check if both teams score or concede goals during similar periods.
These timing patterns help you find good halftime entry points. I like to lay the draw at halftime if I see at least 4 shots on target split between both teams – this shows they’re trying to score but haven’t managed it yet.
League characteristics
Each football league has its own percentage of drawn matches. Some leagues have fewer draws than others, which makes them better for lay the draw strategies.
Statistics websites can help you find leagues that suit your strategy. The Portuguese league has fewer draws compared to some Italian leagues.
You should look for matches where both teams usually score. Stay away from games with clear favorites (odds below 1.50) as underdogs often just defend without attacking. Focus on matches where both teams have scored goals in their recent games.
Head-to-head statistics
Past matches between teams often show patterns that basic stats miss. Look at their recent head-to-head games and study those results carefully.
Professional traders say head-to-head stats are vital for picking matches. Games where teams have scored against each other before work well for lay the draw strategies.
In stark comparison to this, derby matches and local rivalries need extra caution. Teams often try not to lose rather than win these games. Teams next to each other in the league table often draw as they’re happy to share points.
Motivation factors
A team’s motivation can change how a match ends and affect your betting success. Games where teams must win offer great opportunities – like when the home team needs points to avoid relegation.
Missing key players, especially top strikers, can change how a team plays. A team performs very differently without their top scorer, which might change your whole strategy.
There’s another reason to watch out for games between teams close in league position. Both sides often settle for a draw in these matches, which works against your lay strategy.
The right match selection needs patience and discipline. Don’t force trades when conditions aren’t perfect. Take time to analyze team scoring patterns, league traits, head-to-head stats, and motivation factors. This helps you find real opportunities instead of making risky bets.
Executing Your First Lay the Draw Trade
You’ve picked the right match, and now it’s time to put your lay betting strategy to work. Many beginners mess up during this crucial phase, which can ruin even the best-planned lay the draw approach.
Pre-match preparation
Your match preparation needs a full picture of the game. Here’s what you need to do:
- Check the latest team news about last-minute injuries or lineup changes
- Take one final look at recent form and head-to-head statistics
- Set clear exit points before you place your bet
Look for matches with draw prices between 3.2 and 5.0 where the home team is the favourite. These prices give you the best balance of risk and potential reward. After this first filter, get into the goal-scoring stats for both teams. The ideal numbers look like this:
- Home teams should score at least 1.5 goals per game (1.8+ is better)
- Home teams should let in less than 1.25 goals per game
- Away teams should score less than 1.25 goals per game
- Away teams should let in more than 1.25 goals
The sweet spot is finding matches where one team will likely score early.
Placing the lay bet
Head to your betting exchange and find the right market once you’ve picked your match. Click the pink box that shows the current lay odds for the draw. This opens your bet slip, where you’ll put in your stake.
Lay betting works differently – your “stake” is what you’ll win if you’re right, while your “liability” is what you could lose if things go wrong. A small decimal point mistake in your liability could cost you big, so double-check everything.
Your bet shows up in the “My Bets” section after you confirm. Note that 92% of football matches see at least one goal. This makes this strategy feel safer than other options.
Monitoring the match
Watching the match live is vital – checking scores now and then won’t cut it. Live viewing lets you:
- Feel the game’s intensity and flow
- Notice attacking substitutions that could lead to goals
- Spot dangerous moments like corners or free kicks
The draw odds usually jump up after a goal, giving you a chance to back the draw at better odds and lock in your profit. Most exchanges let you hit the “cash out” button to secure your position.
Smart traders might wait it out after the first goal based on how the match feels. If there’s lots of action with shots on target and the scoring team usually gets multiple goals, holding until halftime could double your profits through a second goal.
Set up an escape plan for goalless matches – many traders get out when draw odds hit 2.0 or whatever fits their money management rules.
Exit Strategies That Maximize Profits
Your profitability depends on knowing the right time to exit after placing a lay the draw bet. Most traders put all their focus on entry points but don’t give enough attention to their exit strategy. A perfect match selection won’t help if you make poor exit decisions that drain your betting bank.
Trading out after the first goal
The quickest way to exit is to cash out right after the first goal. Draw odds jump up when a team scores, which creates a chance for instant profit. This method works great for beginners because:
- Higher win rate with more successful trades
- Less risk since you’re in the market for a shorter time
- You make decisions with less emotional pressure
New traders can build confidence as they develop their strategy with this consistent approach. The most important thing is discipline – choose one exit strategy and stick to it instead of changing your mind based on feelings.
Waiting for a second goal
Beyond the beginner’s method, seasoned traders often wait for a second goal to boost their profits. Your potential returns can double compared to leaving after the first goal when the favorite team scores twice.
You need to weigh higher profits against bigger risks. The moment after the first goal becomes crucial – look at:
- Match intensity (shots on target, attacking intent)
- The scoring team’s history of scoring multiple goals
- Current game flow and momentum
Remember not to let winning trades run forever. Set your exit points before the match starts, whatever the situation looks like.
Managing trades when no goals are scored
Goalless matches need clear exit plans to protect your money. Most lay the draw traders exit between 70-75 minutes when draw odds hit about 2.0.
You’ll need to make a key choice:
- Take a managed loss by backing the draw around 65 minutes
- Keep the position and hope for a late goal (since many goals happen late in matches)
Your approach should match your risk comfort level and bankroll size. Smaller bankrolls do better with the guaranteed smaller loss – recovering from one big loss needs several winning trades.
Successful traders define their exit points for every scenario before placing bets. This removes emotion from their decisions. Consistent discipline matters more than perfect occasional trades for long-term success.
Handling When the Underdog Scores First
Every lay the draw trader’s worst fear comes true when the underdog team scores first. The market usually expects the favorites to equalize at this point [link_1], which stops the draw odds from rising enough to exit with a profit. Knowing how to direct yourself through this challenge makes the difference between success and failure in trading.
Immediate exit options
Your first choice when facing an underdog goal is to exit right away. This usually means a small loss, but it helps you avoid bigger losses as the match progresses. This strategy works best when goals happen early in games between teams with vastly different skill levels. You’ll keep your bankroll healthy for better chances instead of waiting for unlikely scenarios. A disciplined trader maintains a high strike rate by avoiding costly mistakes.
Wait and see approach
Sometimes, keeping your position after an underdog goal can work in your favor. Note that you haven’t lost yet—your bet against the draw still stands since the game isn’t tied. The match stats and live action can help you judge if the favorite team might score next. Waiting too long creates risk—a late equalizer after halftime with the underdog up 1-0 could drop the draw odds below your stop-loss level.
The Metaltone strategy
The Metaltone strategy, which came from an old Betfair forum, gives you a well-laid-out plan for this situation. After the underdog scores, you should:
- Back the draw with 50% of your liability
- Lay the leading underdog with 75% of your liability
This method counts on the favorite team scoring eventually, which drives up the underdog’s odds and creates chances for profit. While it works in certain cases, this approach goes against your first position. The underdog scoring again would force you to take a loss, even though your original lay the draw bet would win. That’s why the Metaltone strategy should be used carefully rather than as your go-to response.
Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
A solid lay betting system won’t guarantee success if traders make predictable mistakes. Your bankroll and long-term profits depend on spotting these pitfalls early.
Chasing losses
Bad days tempt traders to recover lost money through unplanned, impulsive bets. This dangerous habit shows poor discipline and usually makes things worse since these reactive bets weren’t good enough to place at first. The pool of betting opportunities shrinks when chasing losses, which makes quality selections harder to find.
The psychological effects run deep. Traders often describe an overwhelming urge to place another bet after losing, hoping luck will turn around. You can break this cycle by stepping away from your trading platform right after losses. Just 20-60 minutes away from the screen helps restore emotional balance.
Poor match selection
Solid strategies often fail because traders don’t research enough. Newcomers tend to apply the lay the draw to every match instead of waiting patiently for the right opportunities. This approach leaves them exhausted with average results.
Lay betting succeeds when you pick matches with high goal probability. Study team scoring patterns carefully. Stay away from derbies or positioning games between league neighbors. Be careful with matches that have teams missing their star strikers.
Lack of discipline
Discipline sets successful bettors apart from consistent losers. Even excellent strategies fail when traders:
- Let emotions override logical analysis
- Don’t stick to planned stake sizes
- Skipping keeping proper records
- Change exit strategies randomly
Clear rules must guide your trading decisions. Stick to them strictly—if you can’t follow your own rules, trading might not be right for you.
Ignoring statistics
No universal formula exists for successful football betting. Bookmakers use advanced technology and massive data sets to ensure they profit long-term.
Statistical analysis creates the foundation for profitable lay betting. Track your results carefully because this reveals which approaches work best with your strategy.
Conclusion
Lay the draw betting is a proven strategy with compelling statistics – only 25% of matches end level, and 92% have at least one goal. Success requires more than understanding these numbers. You need proper implementation through careful match selection, disciplined bankroll management, and a solid exit plan to create consistent profits.
Patience is the key to success. Your win rates will improve when you wait for matches that meet specific criteria about team scoring patterns, league characteristics, and motivation factors. It also helps to keep detailed records that refine your approach over time and prevent emotional decisions.
Lay the draw works because it lines up with how football matches naturally unfold. You can develop a reliable system that capitalizes on predictable market movements through diligent research, proper stake sizing, and predetermined exit points. Note that consistent small wins add up to big profits over time.
Start small, follow these guidelines, and build your experience step by step. Master the simple concepts before you increase stakes or add complexity. Laying the draw can become a dependable part of your betting strategy with dedication and discipline.
FAQs
Q1. Is lay the draw betting still a viable strategy? Lay the draw can still be profitable, especially when combined with in-play trading. While a 1-1 result will result in a loss when laying the draw pre-match, price movements and goals during the match can create opportunities to secure profits through strategic trading.
Q2. What are some key tips for consistent success in sports betting? To win consistently in betting, set and stick to a budget, avoid chasing losses, make decisions based on analysis rather than emotion, and focus on long-term results. Remember that no strategy guarantees 100% success, but disciplined approaches can improve your odds over time.
Q3. How can I maximize my profits when implementing a lay the draw strategy? To maximize profits with lay the draw, focus on careful match selection, use proper bankroll management, and develop strategic exit plans. Patience is crucial – wait for matches that meet specific criteria regarding team scoring patterns, league characteristics, and motivation factors to improve your win rate.
Q4. Are there any guaranteed profit methods in sports betting? While no method guarantees profit, arbitrage betting comes close by exploiting different odds offered by multiple bookmakers on the same event. This involves placing bets on all possible outcomes to ensure a small profit regardless of the result. However, it requires quick action and can be challenging to execute consistently.
Q5. What should I consider when selecting matches for lay the draw betting? When selecting matches for lay the draw, consider team scoring patterns (look for teams that consistently score and concede), league characteristics (some leagues have fewer draws), head-to-head statistics, and motivation factors. Avoid derbies, matches between closely ranked teams, and games with clear favorites, as these can be less suitable for this strategy.
