The National Hunt Chase, a grueling test of stamina and endurance, stands as a revered institution within the Cheltenham Festival.
With its demanding course and formidable obstacles, this marathon event separates the contenders from the pretenders — rewarding those with both talent and tenacity.
As the countdown to this year’s renewal begins, which Embassy Gardens is the favourite to win in the National Hunt Chase odds 2024, let’s delve into the key trends that have shaped the narrative of this prestigious Grade 2 race for amateur riders.
Age
Experience counts for much in the National Hunt Chase, with nine of the 12 recent winners falling within the six to eight age bracket.
This range strikes a balance between youthful vitality and seasoned maturity, offering the ideal profile for success over the demanding trip.
Price
While favourites have tasted success sporadically, with just three of the last 12 winners leading the market, the betting market has still proven to be a reliable guide.
Seven out of the last 12 winners have emerged from the top three in the betting, suggesting that punters should pay close attention to the leading contenders when assessing their chances.
Last run
Recent form is a factor hard to gauge when it comes to determining success, as just five of the last 12 winners prevailed in their final outing before the National Hunt Chase.
Additionally, eight of the 12 champions had their last run within the last 52 days — highlighting the importance of maintaining sharpness and fitness leading up to the big race.
Course familiarity
Familiarity with the unique demands of Cheltenham can prove invaluable, with a vast majority of winners (nine of 12) boasting at least one previous run at the course.
However, prior success at Cheltenham isn’t a prerequisite for victory — as evidenced by the limited number of winners (two of 12) with previous wins at the venue.
Distance mastery
Given the gruelling nature of the National Hunt Chase, proficiency over extended distances is a must.
Nine of the last 12 winners had ample experience over three miles or further, with at least three runs, while all but two notched up victories over such testing trips — underscoring their staying credentials.
Chase credentials
A solid foundation in chase racing is paramount, with 11 of the 12 winners having accumulated at least three runs over fences.
Moreover, the vast majority (10 of 12) had secured at least one previous chase victory — showcasing their aptitude for the unique challenges posed by the chasing game.
Rating and seasonal form
Elevated ratings and a consistent season are common attributes among National Hunt Chase winners.
The vast majority (11 out of 12) boasted ratings of 142 or higher, indicative of their quality, while a significant proportion had notched up multiple runs (10 out of 12) and at least one victory (10 out of 12) during the season — highlighting their form and fitness leading into the race.
As the anticipation builds for the 2024 National Hunt Chase, punters, and horse racing enthusiasts would do well to heed these key trends when assessing the Cheltenham betting offers.
While each renewal of the race brings its own set of challenges and surprises, a thorough understanding of historical patterns can provide valuable insights into identifying the next stayer destined for glory at Prestbury Park.
