As the UK summer draws to a close, Down Under the spring is on the way, and that means the beginning of an intense racing season that climaxes with the Melbourne Cup. The race is clearly the biggest in Australia, and one of the biggest in the world, sharing the same characteristic as The Kentucky Derby and Grand National in the sense that it’s a cultural event, not just a sporting one.
It’s clearly a massive horse racing betting event, too. But arguably, it forms something of an outlier when compared to other blue-chip racing events. In short, the Melbourne Cup is a brutal race for backing the favourites. Overall, the strike rate for favorites is around 23%; since 2000, we are looking at a strike rate of 16.5% for favorites. If you take once-in-a-generation horses out of it, such as three time winner Makybe Diva, it is, as we say brutal.
Other big international races can also be tough on the favourites, but most pale in comparison to the Melbourne Cup. The Kentucky Derby, for instance, has a strike-rate for favourites around 33%, whereas the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe sits around 30%. The UK Grand National is also low, but it also has a much larger field, so this is understandable. Moreover, punters are well aware of the lottery-aspect at Aintree.
Value in the betting
Nonetheless, if we are aware of the propensity of Flemington Park to punish the starting favourites in the “race that stops a nation”, we can look at the prism of value. For example, 75% of Melbourne Cup winners have had a price of 10/1 or above. The odds across the field are a little tighter than the UK Grand National, where we do get 100/1 shots winning on occasion, but winners of 20/1, 25/1, and 40/1 have been recorded in recent years.
The pertinent question, then, is how to pick a winner from the field. To be frank, that can be a minefield, too. As we mentioned, we are approaching the eve of the Australian Spring Carnival season, and that will provide clues for the Melbourne Cup as it progresses. Currently, Tower of London is the ante-post favourite, but it’s far from guaranteed that will be the case on race day. Indeed, because of the series of scratchings in the coming months, you can’t even guarantee that Tower of London will be in the race.
International entrants should be monitored
Secondly, there are the international entrants, which always adds to the confusion. You’ll find top trainers from Japan, the Middle East, Ireland, and the UK hinting that they have a prospect ready to take on Australia’s best at Flemington. Right now, for instance, Willie Mullins is hinting at taking three Down Under. Mullins has had some success, but also a few flops, including last year’s Vauban. And, yes, you guessed it: Vauban was the starting favourite at 3/1; he finished 14th.
All of this arguably paints a picture of a race that is hard to parse out. And while there is some truth in that, we would also argue that the Melbourne Cup is worth taking a chance on in the ante-post markets. You’ll find dozens and dozens of horses listed on bookmakers’ sites, with big odds for some runners that will be whittled down in the coming weeks and months. Do a bit of research, make sure your bookie is refunding bets for non-runners, and you might get some value on Tuesday, 5th November.
