So what is the over 0.5 goals strategy? The over 0.5 goals strategy is betting on football matches where you think there will be at least one goal, the odds are very low for these bets as the 0-0 scoreline in football is very rare in fact it only happens around 8% of the time or one in every 12 to 13 matches.
What does over 0.5 goals mean? it means a single goal needs to be scored and 0-0 will be a losing bet.
This is why the over 0.5 goals strategy came to play a major part in many football betting systems, the main idea is that you start with a small stake and build it up over time.
The Problem is it only takes a single 0-0 result to wipe you out and though they are rare as I mentioned above they do happen and can sometimes happen in a glut of fixtures too.
Many football punters like to add a few games in an over 0.5 goals accumulator which is basically just 4 or more matches where they think there will be over 0.5 goals scored(1 goal at least), this is a lot riskier though as there are already flaws in this strategy.
How The Over 0.5 Goals Betting System Works
This system is based on making the selection, so picking a game to have over 0.5 goals in it (the game only has to have a single goal to win), and if it wins you roll over the stake and profit on to the next selection.
As you can see by the table below the most common Scores in the Premier League for the seasons 2015/16 to 2019/20 inclusive 0-0 only occurred 7.05% of the time.
Some use over 0.5 goals accumulator bets to get huge returns but for a large number of selections which is a high risk option, you are much wiser to focus on one at a time.
Over 0.5 goals strategy stats
|Score||Frequency||% Of Premier League Games 2015/16 to 2019/20|
Very much like the martingale system for Roulette punters are told to place a bet on over 0.5 goals on a selected match and if it wins they roll the stake over to the next selection likewise if it loses they are told to double their stake for the next selection.
The strategy requires games that are priced around 1.10. These are slightly higher odds than most bookmakers will offer on this bet type, and when you get teams such as Man City who pretty much always score, the odds will be even lower.
If you’ve got odds of 1.10 then after 10 games of rolling your stake over each time you will have made a £25.94 profit from a starting bankroll of £10. After 90 games, which is where the betting strategy reaches its climax, you will be at profits in the region of £53,142.69. It seems easy, but you will need to pick 90 winning games in a row. Even at odds as short as 1.10, this is not an easy task.
This is a flawed system, to be honest, this applies to the over 0.5 first half goals strategy too, and if anything you are less likely to win on the over 0.5in the first half strategy long term than you are with the standard over 0.5 goals betting system.
Flaws In The Over 0.5 Goals Strategy
There are a few major flaws in this betting on over 0.5 goals strategy and the first is that 0.0 scorelines do happen, as the table further up the page reflects just in the premier league over a few seasons the average was over 7% of games end 0-0.
A single loss ruins the system
One loss is all it takes to wipe you out and this is why it’s not a successful system by a long stretch with odds as low as 1.05 for a £10 starter stake you will win just 50p for the first game you get right but if you lose you lose your £10 starting stake.
You may be lucky enough to get 20 to 30 games right in a row but the small return is just simply not worth it and with each extra bet you place the more chance you have of losing.
Look at the image above which is a typical round of Premier League football, there’s a 0-0 shoreline up there already.
Large stakes and risk for very small returns
Let’s say you stake £10 on that 1.05 odds over 0.5 goals in the game bet and it wins, you win 50p so now you have £10.50 the system states that you now need to stake that £10.50 on the next game.
Here’s what that looks like over 10 matches, I have used the same odds to make it easier to understand how small the returns are each round.
|Bet Number||Stake||Odds||Profit||Total Stake On To Next Bet|
As you can see for 10 bets starting with a £10 stake if you managed to get all ten matches to have a goal in your profit would only be £6.29, it only takes one match to end 0-0 and it wipes you out.
The Maths is not on your side
The chances of winning on a 1.10 bet are 91%, so when you try and win two of these in a row, you need to work out 0.91×0.91 = 0.83 or 83%. 3 in row is 0.83 x 0.91 = 76%, 4 in a row is 0.69 or 69% and so on. To get 10 in a row the odds are actually just a 39% chance of succeeding.
So that means you have a 39% of making £6.29 and a 61% chance of losing your starting bet of £10 before you get there, the more bets you place the less likely you are to succeed.
Over 0.5 Goals Tips For Maximum Chance Of Winning
Though the system is flawed it can be tweaked to give more chance of profitability, there are a few things that you can do and I have listed them below.
- Target 1.10 odds or higher
- Focus on games with the maximum chance of a goal
- Choose leagues that statistically have a lower amount of 0-0 results
- Start with a higher stake
- Go for less than 5 results in a row
- Try over 0.5 first half goals too
Ideally, you want to do your research on which leagues have the least 0-0 results, which fixtures have the best chances of having a goal, and the higher odds you can get the better.
Starting with a higher stake will mean there is far more risk but also more reward, it also allows you to go after fewer consecutive wins in order to reach a profit target.
Over 0.5 First Half Goals
This is very similar to the standard over 0.5 goals strategy but the game must not be 0-0 at half time, basically, you need over 0.5 first half goals so 1 goal at least before half time.
Now you can get much better odds for this but you have half as much time for a goal to be scored.
Far more risk with this one but with the better odds it’s easier to profit, I personally would avoid this betting system though.
Over 0.5 first half goals tips for maximum chances
Again if you must proceed with this strategy there are a few things you can do to improve your overall chances of profiting.
- Look for home teams that have scored in the first half of a high percentage of their games
- Choose leagues where games end 0-0 at halftime less
- Try small over 0.5 goals accumulator bets for higher returns and a lower stake
- Know there is more risk with over 0.5 first-half goals than at full time
there are many options to use this strategy some use the over 0.5 second half strategy which follows the same principle but for the second 45 mins of the football match only.
Summary – Does The Over 0.5 Goals Strategy Work?
In short No, this strategy does not work especially based on the number of bets needed to get a decent return you are far more likely to end up in a loss than a profit.
I hope that you found this post useful please share it on social media to help others out that may be considering this football betting strategy themselves and save them some money.
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