First & Anytime Goal Scorer Betting – Strategy, Tips, and Advice
Regular football punters will know that trawling through endless statistics and doing in-depth research is not the most enjoyable aspect of sports betting. But love them or hate them, statistics are an integral part of a gamblers toolkit and, once you get used to using them, it will become second nature. In fact, you will probably find yourself knee-deep in spreadsheets full of data and be identifying those high-value bets in no time!
If you are new to this number-crunching approach, goalscorer bets are a great place to start. They are simple in principle and easy to research but they also bring an element of fun to your football betting experience. And that is why so many punters delve into the First and Anytime Goal Scorer (AGS) markets. So let’s take a close look at these two bet types beginning with the Anytime Goal Scorer bet.
Anytime Goal Scorer Rules
The simple concept of backing a player to score a goal at any time during a 90-minute football match is attractive to punters of all levels. From casual punters who might get a feeling that Harry Kane is going to score again, to more serious gamblers who have identified the most likely scorer through statistical research, the AGS bet can be both fun and profitable. You can even place Anytime Goal Scorer doubles to boost your odds.
You may be wondering: Does Anytime Goal Scorer include extra time? As with all bets, the terms and conditions may vary depending on which bookmaker you use but as a general rule, AGS bets only apply to the regulation 90 minutes of a game. Most bookmakers will also void the bet and return your stake if your player does not take to the field. If your selected player scores a goal, your bet will pay out – even if they come on as a last-minute substitute. It does not matter when the goal is scored or how many other goals have already been scored, you just need your man or woman to find the back of the net.
The AGS bet can add excitement to a live TV game or a game you are attending because you still have a chance of winning as long as your player remains on the pitch. You can’t beat the feeling of watching your player secure you a tidy profit deep into injury time.
AGS Strategy
The AGS market allows you to bet on many different leagues in various countries and just by doing some basic research you easily identify potential targets in Europe’s top leagues.
You do not need a wide knowledge of a particular league to find good value AGS bets but it does help to keep an eye on injuries, recent form and other external factors that could affect your selection.
Finding a player that is likely to score is not hard but by going for the obvious choices, it is unlikely that you will find much value. As with any type of bet, you need a good balance of probability and value; and to find that, you sometimes have to dig a bit deeper.
What you should be looking for when identifying high-value AGS/FGS targets:
- High-scoring players from leagues that have less market interest. The bookmakers sometimes overlook goal machines from lesser-known leagues if there is less activity in that market.
- Midfielders or defenders that are scoring regularly. You will nearly always get better prices from players that score from deeper roles.
- Players that are finding form or entering a scoring run. They may be coming out of a dry spell or have been very unlucky in front of goal in recent games.
- Set-piece and penalty takers.
Once you have identified a possible bet, you should confirm the value by checking the Anytime Goal Scorer odds and assessing the overall context of the game.
Other factors to consider:
- The defensive form of the opposition.
- Does the player score more at home or away?
- Does the player only score against inferior teams?
- Is the player fully fit?
- Will the player be rested because it is a cup game?
- Has the player or club’s reputation influenced the price?
First Goal Scorer Betting
So, what is First Goal Scorer betting? Well, just like the Anytime Goal Scorer bet, the clue is in the title. The idea is to predict which player will score the first goal in the regulation 90 minutes of a football match. Sounds easy right? And it is, in principle.
Again, there are no complicated calculations needed and the odds are clear and easy to understand. In fact, placing a bet could not be easier. The hard part is achieving a long-term
profit by regularly betting in this market. If you rely on gut feeling alone, you may strike it lucky and bag a few winners but to perform well in the long term, you need a strategy.
Remember, the player you choose must score first (unless you place a First Goal Scorer Each Way bet – see below), so your bet could win or lose at any moment in the game. As with AGS bets, the obvious world class strikers will rarely offer enough value to give you a positive long-term yield, so you need to find players that offer the best probability to value ratio.
First Goal Scorer Strategy
You can apply the same principles used in AGS betting to your FGSwagering and you will find markets available in football leagues all over the world. Once again, it is relatively easy to identify targets in some lower profile leagues where better value can often be found.
Your knowledge of a particular league is not vital providing that the data you collect is accurate and up to date, and it always pays to make sure that your player is not injured or likely to be rested for any reason.
Identifying potential targets is fairly easy but finding high-value ones is a little bit harder. The trick is to calculate the probability against the value and see if the odds are tilted in your favour.
Calculating the value of goalscorer bets
To calculate the value of a bet, you need to gather some basic information, so let’s take a look at an example.
If a player has scored in six out of their last 13 appearances and all of those goals were scored first, they would have a FGS strike rate of 46.15% (6 x 100 / 13).
If the player is priced at 16/5 to score first on the next game, we can now use this simple formula to turn the bookmaker’s odds into probability:
- Denominator / (denominator + numerator) x 100
- 5 / (16 + 5) x 100 = 23.81%
The odds of 16/5 gives us an implied probability of 23.81%.
These figures make good reading for any punter. The bookies are offering odds that equate to a 23.81% probability against an outcome that has occurred 46.15% of the time across the season. Sounds tempting doesn’t it? But before you rush out and use up the William Hill free bet available via the Oddschecker site, you need ask why the odds are so good.
Well, this is where you need to take a closer to look for any influential factors. Maybe all of those goals were scored in home games and the next match is away (much has been made of Gini Wijnaldum’s inability to score an away goal at club level). Or maybe the player is returning from injury and might only make the bench. Or maybe those goals came in the first six games and the player has failed to score in the last seven.
So, don’t take the stats at face value, you need to understand the context and circumstances. Once you have taken all this into consideration, you can then decide if the bet still represents good value.
Each-way First Goal Scorer bets
You can also place an each-way bet on first goal scorers. Some bookmakers offer a First Goal Scorer Each-way bet that normally pays out 1/3 of the quoted odds if your player scores first,
second or third. Always check the terms and conditions of the individual betting company before placing your bet.
First Goal Scorer own goals
In the event that the first goal is an own goal, it will not count for bet settlement purposes. The bet will remain active until the next goal is scored.
