Paul Townend has a cracking book of rides lined up for Sunday, and I’ve been through his preview with a fine-tooth comb to see where the value might be hiding. The champion jockey’s given us some brilliant insights into his mounts, and there are definitely a few that catch the eye.
Starting with Final Demand at 2/5 in the 13:10 Novice Chase, Townend’s confidence is clear as day. He mentions he “couldn’t get off him for anything” – that’s the kind of jockey confidence that gets me excited as a punter. Yes, the price is short, but when you’ve got a jockey who remembers being thrilled by a horse’s performance at Navan and believes he underperformed last time out, there’s room for improvement. The opposition includes Western Fold, which has similar ratings, but Townend’s enthusiasm makes this one hard to ignore.
Paul Townend On Final Demands Chances
“I start my Sunday rides with Final Demand 2/5 in the Novice Chase (13:10). I guess he didn’t blow anyone away in Limerick, but he still won. I think he underperformed on the day, but I’m not sure he or the race ever got competitive enough to perform either. He jumped fine and got valuable experience. I also have a brilliant memory of him around Navan in his beginner’s chase – he really excited me that day, and I can’t wait to get back up on him. In opposition, Western Fold won’t give it to him easy. There’s only a pound between them in ratings and he has some flashy form when you go back through. He was a length behind Affordale Fury at Down Royal. We also have Kaid d’Authie and Jimmy Du Seuil, who both have good form for sure, but I love Final Demand and I couldn’t get off him for anything in the race.”
King Rasko Grey at 12/5 in the 13:40 Novice Hurdle looks like cracking value to me, and many tipsters are tipping it up too. Townend was clearly impressed watching Danny Mullins ride him to victory on debut, and the form has worked out brilliantly since. When a jockey talks about a horse “really, really strongly” seeing out the race and mentions they’ll “step forward” with that run under their belt, I’m listening. This could be the pick of the day.
The Dublin Chase presents an interesting puzzle with 12-year-old Energumene at 8/1. Townend’s spot-on about the ground conditions – heavy ground suits this old warrior perfectly, and it’s been years since he’s had these conditions. The cheekpieces’ addition suggests they’re looking for that extra spark, and at his age, the slower ground could be the key to unlocking one more big performance.
Lossiemouth at 11/10 in the Irish Champion Hurdle is where Townend’s really confident. His analysis of the December Hurdle rematch with Brighterdaysahead is telling – he felt he was “always holding” his rival and describes himself as a “snug winner.” That’s the kind of confidence that translates to the betting ring.
Paul Townend On Lossiemouth’s Chances
“Next up it’s Lossiemouth 11/10 in the Irish Champion Hurdle (15:20). It’s a rematch with Brighterdaysahead from the December Hurdle, which we won at the end of last year. I think is going to be a different race to Christmas. I thought I had to do the donkey work to catch up with Anzadam when he went by us down the back straight. Then I was just left in front and felt I was always holding Brighterdaysahead. Lossiemouth doesn’t usually take off and gallop away from horses, certainly when she’s not asked to. I’d be hoping to get the better of her again. We had race fitness going into Christmas and now they’ve got the run on their belt.Anzadam is still a very good horse, I think, if they can just channel that energy in the right direction. But it looks like it’s between the two mares. I’ve only watched the December Hurdle back again last night and, you know, she closed on me at the back of the last. She galloped right to the line, so could you say she needed the run. I travelled into the straight much better than Jack. He was niggling away at the back of the second last round into the home straight, and she stayed galloping right to the line. That would lead me to believe she was pretty race-ready, so I thought I was a snug winner the last day.”
Finally, Murcia at 9/1 in the Listed Handicap looks like an each-way value in a competitive field. Townend acknowledges the weight concerns but highlights her Aintree success and improvement since November. In a race where “anything could be lurking,” backing the jockey’s choice makes sense.
Paul Townend On Murcia
“Finally, I ride Murcia 9/1 in the Listed Handicap Hurdle (15:52). It’s a nice, big field with a lot of decent runners in it. I’ve gone for Murcia even though it’s a lot of weight for her to carry, and she’s not a huge filly. She ran okay on testing ground in Naas last year and she was beaten into second before she went to Cheltenham for the Fred Winter. I fancied our chances at Aintree after that, and she won well. She’d come to herself, and it was ideal ground – she’s not going to get that here. She’ll also have stepped forward plenty for her run at Fairyhouse in November. We have nine horses from the stable in this race, and they all have their chances in a race where anything could be lurking with a nice weight.”
Overall, Townend’s got some serious chances today. King Rasko Grey and Lossiemouth look like the strongest bets to me, with Murcia offering decent each-way value. When a jockey of Townend’s calibre shares his thoughts this openly, smart punters take notice.
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