You can bet on ice hockey across 1,736 NHL games in a season. Each team plays 56 games in a revised year, which makes hockey a goldmine of betting opportunities compared to other major sports.
Legal sportsbooks give hockey bettors some unique advantages that newcomers often miss. The NFL and NBA betting markets get packed with action, yet hockey betting comes with softer markets and fewer data points. This creates great value opportunities for smart bettors.
My early days of ice hockey betting taught me the importance of price shopping. Sportsbooks often list different odds on similar matchups. Checking multiple sources can boost your profits substantially over time. Advanced metrics like Corsi (which shows puck possession) can give you a real edge. Last season proved this point – bettors who used the Portfolio EV model saw an impressive 6.1% ROI on NHL bets.
New ice hockey betting enthusiasts should start with a modest bankroll. A $500 starting amount with small wagers of $10-$25 helps limit your risk while you learn. Smart ice hockey betting requires patience, solid stat analysis, and a reliable strategy.
This piece will show you how to make smarter NHL bets. We’ll cover everything from simple bet types to advanced analytics that casual bettors rarely use.
Understanding Ice Hockey Bet Types
You need to learn about fundamental bet types before placing your first ice hockey wager. Hockey has betting markets that might seem complex at first. Here’s what you need to know about the basics.
Moneyline, Puck Line, and Totals Explained
Moneyline betting gives you the simplest way to wager on ice hockey. You pick which team will win the game outright, including overtime or shootout periods. To name just one example, the Los Angeles Kings at +150 against the San Jose Sharks at -120 shows your potential returns. A winning $100 bet on the Kings pays $150 in profit, while you need to wager $120 on the favoured Sharks to win $100.
Puck line betting works as hockey’s version of the point spread. The standard 1.5 goals handicap adds another dimension to the matchup. A -1.5 puck line favourite must win by two or more goals for your bet to win. A +1.5 puck line underdog can win outright or lose by one goal, and your bet still wins. This option gives better odds on favourites compared to moneyline betting.
Totals betting (over/under) looks at the combined goals scored by both teams. Most NHL totals range between 5 and 6.5 goals. Seven or more total goals win an over bet on a 6.5 total. Six or fewer goals win an under wager.
Two-Way vs Three-Way Betting Lines
The difference between two-way and three-way betting lines matters in hockey. Two-way lines count overtime and shootouts in the final result—this is the standard moneyline bet at most sportsbooks.
Three-way lines (also called 60-minute betting) give you three options: home win, away win, or tie, based on regulation time only. Your three-way bet settles on the score after 60 minutes, even if the game goes to overtime. This creates higher odds since about 20-25% of NHL games need overtime.
A team at -290 on the two-way moneyline might improve to -180 on the three-way moneyline. This offers better value but comes with more risk.
How to Read NHL Odds
NHL odds show up in American format, which new bettors often find tricky. The negative (-) number shows the favourite and tells you how much to bet to win $100. The positive (+) number indicates the underdog and shows your potential win on a $100 bet.
Here’s an example:
- Boston Bruins (-175): Bet $175 to win $100
- Dallas Stars (+155): Win $155 on a $100 bet
These basics are the foundations for more advanced betting strategies. Start with moneyline bets until you feel comfortable with hockey odds. Then explore puck lines and totals as your experience grows.
Note that sportsbooks often list different odds for similar matchups. Price shopping helps maximise your potential returns on ice hockey bets.
Beginner Strategies for Betting on Hockey
“Hoping to recoup is what ruins the gambler.” — Anonymous (widely cited in betting literature), Frequently quoted in professional gambling and betting strategy guides
Smart strategies will boost your winning chances once you grasp the simple bet types. My experience with ice hockey betting shows these three approaches can make a big difference in your results.
Shop for the Best Odds
Finding the best value is crucial for successful hockey betting. Hockey has “softer” betting markets compared to popular sports. Fewer data points and wagers create more odds variance across platforms. This gives bettors a great chance to find better deals.
I check several sportsbooks before placing any hockey bet. You might see the Oilers vs. Panthers total at 6 on one platform while another has it at 6.5. Such small differences add up and can change your results drastically over time.
Sportsbooks also give different sign-up bonuses to boost your initial bankroll. These bonuses include deposit matches, “bet and get” offers, and “no sweat bets”. Using these promotions lets you start your ice hockey betting with extra funds without risking more of your money.
Start with Small Stakes and Manage Your Bankroll
My first step was to create a dedicated betting fund – money just for betting. This helps you stay in control and avoid emotional decisions.
Good bankroll management means you should:
- Set a budget you can afford to lose
- Bet only 1-3% of your total bankroll per wager
- Keep betting money separate from daily expenses
- Change bet sizes as your bankroll grows or shrinks
A $1,000 bankroll means betting around $20-$50 per selection. This careful approach protects your funds during losing streaks. You’ll be able to handle the natural ups and downs of hockey betting.
Track Your Bets and Learn from Results
Record-keeping has proven vital to my betting success. I log every bet’s details:
Teams, date, odds, stake amount, and results. This detailed tracking reveals patterns – you might see better results with certain bet types or teams.
Regular analysis of your betting data shows what works and what doesn’t. You could find out that underdog moneylines are your strength, while totals bets need work.
Hockey’s unpredictable nature means even weak teams often win and favourites lose to underdogs. Focus on learning instead of quick profits. The NHL season offers over 1,000 NHL games. There’s no need to bet on every game. Patient analysis and consistency will lead to smarter, more profitable ice hockey betting.
Using Team and Player Stats to Your Advantage
Statistical analysis gives you a huge edge when betting on ice hockey. Learning which numbers matter helps me make smarter decisions and find value bets others don’t see.
How to Analyse Team Form and Momentum
Five-on-five play accounts for more than 80% of NHL game time. This makes it the best way to judge how good a team really is. My focus stays on a team’s success rate against opponents during these even-strength situations.
Winning streaks might catch your eye, but the numbers tell a different story. The real indicators of success come from looking at performance trends rather than just wins and losses. A team’s shots on goal differential and scoring chances paint a clearer picture than recent results.
Power plays and penalty minutes need extra attention. Teams that score well during power plays have a big advantage. Teams that spend too much time shorthanded can’t keep up their attack.
The first goal makes a huge difference—teams scoring first win about 67% of NHL games. This means teams known to start strong can offer great betting value.
Key Player Metrics to Watch
Simple stats don’t tell the whole story about player performance. The way star players perform against specific teams often sets the tone for scoring and game flow.
Faceoff success rates show who controls the puck—a vital factor in controlling game speed. Teams that win more faceoffs can keep pressure on their opponents.
For forwards, I track shooting percentage and high-danger scoring chances, not just goals. A defenseman’s value shows in blocked shots and zone exits, which matter most during penalty kills.
Why Goalie Performance Matters
Goalies often decide who wins or loses, making them the most important players to analyse. You must know who starts in goal before placing bets. The gap between starting and backup goalies can change odds significantly.
Save percentage during five-on-five play matters more than overall stats because it removes special teams from the equation. High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) shows how well goalies stop quality chances—this separates the elite from the average.
Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) compares goalies to the league average. This helps identify the best performers regardless of their team’s quality. Bookmakers say goalie performance can change win probability by 3-5%. That’s enough to make underdogs worth betting on.
Goalie stats can change quickly. That’s why I look at different periods (full season, last 10 games, last 5 games) to get better predictions.
Advanced Analytics for Smarter Bets
Advanced hockey metrics give smart bettors the most important advantage to evaluate matchups. Learning these analytics has helped me learn about team performance beyond traditional stats.
Understanding Corsi and Fenwick
Corsi and Fenwick are the foundations of puck possession in hockey. Corsi measures all shot attempts—including shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots—at even strength. Teams with a Corsi For Percentage (CF%) above 52% show excellent performance, and anything above 55% places a team among the top five league-wide. The numbers speak for themselves – eight of the top ten teams in CF% last season made the playoffs.
Fenwick works like Corsi but leaves out blocked shots. This metric reveals teams that not only create shots but find ways to get them through defensive pressure. Both stats relate to puck possession—teams that control the puck 60% of the time have about a 60% chance of winning games.
Expected Goals (xGF/xGA) and What They Mean
Expected goals (xG) give probability values to shots based on quality rather than quantity. Unlike raw shot counts, xG looks at factors like shot distance, angle, and type. This metric has proven more reliable than Corsi to predict future performance.
The Vegas Golden Knights’ story proves this point. They managed to keep a Corsi differential of -297 yet had an xGF differential of +20 last season, and ended up winning the Stanley Cup. Smart bettors look for teams with strong xGF but weak actual goal totals, as this might signal an undervalued team ready for positive regression.
High-Danger Scoring Chances and GSAx
High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDSC) track shots from prime scoring areas—usually the slot and areas just outside the crease. The numbers tell the story – nine of the top-10 teams in HDCF% last season made the playoffs, including all four Conference Finalists with HDCF% above 52.5%.
Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) shows how well goalies perform by comparing actual goals allowed against expected goals. This helps us spot elite goaltenders, whatever their team’s quality, which can uncover value bets when strong goaltenders face seemingly better opponents.
Situational Factors That Impact NHL Games
Hockey betting success comes from looking beyond statistics at situational factors that can change game outcomes dramatically. If you know these patterns, the NHL’s packed schedule creates unique betting opportunities.
Travel Schedules and Fatigue
NHL matchups require a close look at travel demands before placing bets. Teams that cross multiple time zones face major disadvantages. Research shows players’ bodies take about one day per time zone to adjust. East Coast teams struggle with late start times out west, while West Coast teams find it hard to play early games in the East.
The numbers tell the story. East Coast teams win about 55% of home games but manage only 45% when they visit the West Coast. Circadian misalignment affects performance regardless of the travel direction. This makes it vital to check before placing hockey wagers.
Injury Reports and Lineup Changes
Lineup changes don’t affect betting value as much as you might think. People talk about star players “carrying” teams, but simulation models show individual player impact tops out at 3-4%. This small percentage becomes vital in close matchups.
Goalies make a bigger difference. A starting goalie’s absence can change implied win probability by 3-5%. This could turn an underdog into a value bet. Smart injury report analysis focuses on replacement quality and how roster changes might motivate the team.
Back-to-Back Games and Rest Days
Back-to-back games offer prime betting opportunities. Teams playing two nights straight earn about 0.04 fewer points per game compared to rested teams. This effect grows over time. Five-season data shows teams averaged 0.108 fewer points per game on the second night of back-to-backs. That’s roughly a 5% drop in win probability.
The rest advantage shows up even more in specific cases. Road teams with one day’s rest went 41-73 (-25.6% ROI) against home teams with two days’ rest. Home teams playing their second game in two nights posted a negative 10% ROI, no matter their opponent’s situation.
Casual bettors often miss these situational factors. Adding them to your ice hockey betting strategy can uncover exceptional value opportunities.
Wrapping Up Your NHL Betting Trip
NHL betting gives you plenty of chances with 1,736 games each season. This piece has shown you proven strategies to help you navigate your way through ice hockey betting with more confidence and profit potential.
Of course, mastering the basics matters if you want long-term success. Moneyline, puck line, and totals bets give you different ways to bet on hockey games. Each type has its advantages based on the matchup. On top of that, you can find better value opportunities when you know the difference between two-way and three-way betting lines.
Your betting strategy needs three main practices. Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best prices. Keep your bankroll safe by starting with small stakes (1-3% of your total funds). Track every bet you make to spot patterns and get better results over time.
Without a doubt, statistical analysis gives you an edge over others. Team performance at five-on-five play, goalie metrics, and player stats are great ways to get insights that casual bettors miss. Advanced analytics like Corsi, Fenwick, and Expected Goals help you spot value before the market catches up.
Ground factors play a vital role in hockey outcomes. Travel fatigue, back-to-back games, and rest advantages can move win probabilities by 5% or more. This change can turn an underdog into a smart bet. Understanding these elements before placing wagers will boost your results.
Note that consistency beats occasional big wins. Hockey’s unpredictable nature means even the strongest teams lose often. Patience and careful analysis work better than chasing losses or making quick bets.
NHL betting is a marathon, not a sprint. These strategies give you the tools to make smarter bets and potentially profit in the long run. Start small, keep learning, and adjust based on your results – your path to hockey betting success lies ahead.
How to Bet on Ice Hockey Your FAQs
Q1. What are the main types of bets in ice hockey? The main types of bets in ice hockey include moneyline (betting on which team will win), puck line (similar to point spread betting), and totals (betting on the combined number of goals scored by both teams).
Q2. How can I improve my chances of winning when betting on hockey? To improve your chances, shop for the best odds across multiple sportsbooks, start with small stakes to manage your bankroll, and keep detailed records of your bets to learn from your results. Additionally, analyse team and player statistics, and consider situational factors like travel schedules and back-to-back games.
Q3. What role does goalie performance play in hockey betting? Goalie performance is crucial in hockey betting. It can shift the implied win probability by 3-5%. Focus on metrics like save percentage at five-on-five play and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) to evaluate goaltender performance accurately.
Q4. How do advanced analytics like Corsi and Expected Goals help in hockey betting? Advanced analytics provide deeper insights into team performance. Corsi measures puck possession, while Expected Goals (xG) evaluates shot quality. These metrics can help identify undervalued teams and predict future performance more accurately than traditional statistics.
Q5. Why is it important to consider situational factors when betting on hockey? Situational factors like travel schedules, back-to-back games, and rest days can significantly impact game outcomes. For instance, teams playing on consecutive nights earn approximately 0.04 fewer points per game than rested teams. Considering these factors can help you identify valuable betting opportunities.
