Clipper Logistics Handicap

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The Wizard Of Big Odds has produced an excellent preview of todays tough handicap, the Clipper Logistics.
 
The level of detail and incredible amount of work that has gone into the preview, shows you just how hard The Wizard Of Big Odds works.
 
He has been with Tipsters Empire for over two years now and in that time has made 350 points profit.
 
We believe he will shortly go on a great run and when he does the profit will be insane. Take last September as an example, he went 5 months in a row of profit and over 200 points.
 
 
PREVIEW
 
CLIPPER LOGISTICS HANDICAP – 2.45 York – Thursday 20th August – Class 2 for 3 yo +
 
7 furlongs 192 yards – 20 declared
 
A very hot handicap which looks very much better than recent renewals. Can favourite Top Rank remain unbeaten and show he’s potentially group class? Can Prompting back up his recent Golden Mile and win his fourth race on the spin, or will David O’Meara win with one of his other 3 runners? Can Sir Busker get back on track after his unlucky run at Goodwood? Will Montatham continue on his steep upward curve? Or will something spring from the pack to deny them all? Let’s go through the runners and see if we can put some flesh on the bones.
 
TOP RANK – Trainer James Tate – Jockey P J McDonald – Current price 9/2
Has a very progressive profile, winning all 4 races to date and looked potentially group class last time out at Thirsk, when murdering a field of inferior handicappers. The handicapper has stuck him up 12lbs for that win and he faces much sterner opposition here, but it was very hard not to be impressed with that win. He looks stronger this year and tends to be quickly into his stride which will be a massive advantage in this race as there looks a distinct lack of prominent racers. He should be able to get a great early position, and he should take plenty of stopping, on a track that should really suit his style of racing.
 
PROMPTING – Trainer David O’Meara – Jockey Daniel Tudhope – Current odds 7/1
Is on a right roll having won his last 3 starts, including the Golden Mile on his most recent appearance. He was well drawn that day and did get the run of the race but he was impressive nonetheless. A rating of 6lbs seems very fair and having won easily the time previous at this track he ticks a lot of boxes. He’s improved bundles since joining his current connections and a big run from another nice draw seems very likely.
 
SIR BUSKER – Trainer William Knight – Jockey Oisen Murphy – Current odds 7/1
Has been in great form this year, winning the Silver Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, before finishing second in the Bunbury Cup. His latest run when well behind Prompting at Goodwood can be safely ignored as he constantly got denied a clear run. He remains in very good form and holds every chance.
 
MONTATHAM – Trainer William Haggis – Jockey Jim Crowley – Current odds 7/1
Beat Dark Vision last time out at Sandown having finished 2nd to that rival previously in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. That form is very good and the handicapper has reacted fairly putting him up 3lbs for the Ascot run before nudging him up another 4 for his latest win. He gets this trip well, is still improving and will be on many peoples shorts list. Hard to discount. 
 
FIRMAMENT – Trainer David O’Meara – Jockey Sean Kirrane (5) – Current odds 12/1
Won this race in 2016, finished 3rd in 2017, 3rd in 2018 and 4th last year, so he’s impossible to totally dismiss, although this looks the toughest renewal for some time. He also won last time out here, so has a proper love affair with York. His young jockey takes off a valuable 5lbs but still I can’t see him being good enough to win this.
  
MUTAMAASIK – Trainer Roger Varian – Jockey Dane O’Neil – Current odds 14/1
Is interesting if the first-time blinkers have a positive effect. He ran very well first time out this year when 3rd in the Buckingham Palace Stakes but hasn’t been in the same form in his two runs since. All his 4 wins have come over 7 furlongs and he’s also made the running on one occasion in the past. There’s every chance they could pop him out and get a good early stalking position. He’s chancy but is not fully discounted.
 
SHELIR – Trainer David O’Meara – Jockey Andrea Atzeni – Current odds 16/1
Is a horse who has a big win in him when things pan out right, but he may have to wait for another day. He’s run two cracking races this year at Ascot, finishing 5th of 23 in the Buckingham Palace before finishing a good 8th of 19 in the International. On each of those occasions he had a terrible draw and ran far better than his finishing position suggested. Stall 1 however is a worry. He may get stuck on the inside and whilst others are heading for home, he may just have too much to do.
 
OUZO – Trainer Richard Hannon – Jockey Sean Levey – Current odds 18/1
Looked a promising handicapper last year when landing a hattrick of wins but he remains 10lbs above his last winning mark and there’s nothing in his 4 runs since to suggest he can play a part here. He looks under-priced at his current odds and is not for me.
 
ORBAAN – Trainer David O’Meara – Jockey James Doyle – Current odds 18/1
Is the fourth member of the O’Meara team and currently the biggest price of his runners, but he looks to hold decent claims. He was trained by Andre Fabre in France and in his 4 runs for his current yard he’s run 2 poor races and 2 very good ones, interestingly enough both of those positive runs were here at York. He showed a good turn of foot to win well off a 4lb lower mark 3 starts back (had Firmament well behind) and then followed that up with a good 4th at the track on his next start, just fading late on after travelling strongly throughout. After disappointing last time out connections now reach for the first-time hood and if that has a positive effect he’s not without a chance.
 
WALHAAN – Trainer Ian Williams – Jockey Ben Curtis – Current odds 20/1
Improved a bundle last time out at Ascot, when 2nd to River Nymph who franked the form when winning easily at Newbury on Sunday. He was 100/1 shot that day but there seemed no fluke about the performance but I need to see more and I’m not sure that form is good enough. He was bordering on listed class in his native France and all his form is with plenty of cut in the ground so if the ground dries out he may find things happening a bit too quickly for him.
 
WHAT’S THE STORY – Trainer Keith Dalgleish – Jockey Shane Gray -Current odds 20/1
Loves this this track having scored twice here, including when winning this very race last year off a 3lb lower mark. This does look much tougher however. He’s also finished 3rd in a John Smiths cup here over nearly 3 furlongs further so I’d imagine jockey Shane Gray won’t want this to turn into a sprint. Even from stall 18 i’d anticipate they’ll go forward with him and get a good early position. With his course record it would be folly to dismiss him totally out of hand.
 
ARIGATO – Trainer William Jarvis – Jockey Josephine Gordon – Current odds 20/1
Has a real liking for Newmarket and his form away from Headquarters just isn’t in the same league? He’s been much improved this year,  but he’s readily passed over on this occasion. 
 
QUASAR – Trainer Richard Hannon – Jockey Rossa Ryan – Current odds 22/1
Won well on penultimate start at Haydock but that win was on soft ground which seems his preferred surface and he was hit with a 7lb rise for that victory. He was well beaten last time out in a 4-runner race back on better ground, and he looks too high in the weights.
 
DEEP INTRIGUE – Trainer Mark Johnston – Jockey Joe Fanning – Current odds 22/1
Looks one of the likely pacesetters and although it can be foolish to discount a Mark Johnston runner, his form doesn’t stack up against these.
 
LIGHT AND DARK – Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor – Jockey Callum Shepherd – Current odds 28/1
Is a dark horse having had just the 6 lifetime starts and has been off the track for 12 months but he’s unlikely to need the outing hailing from the Bin Suroor yard. He looked very good when dotting up at Newmarket but has been well beaten in both his starts since and that win was almost 18 months ago now. He’s 10lbs higher in the weights now too. He looks to have ability but there’s just too many question marks.
 
RED BOND – Trainer Keith Dalgleish – Jockey John Egan – Current odds 33/1
Is the other one who looks likely to go forward, but he’s drawn stall 20 and that won’t do him any favours. He’s been much improved this season and although all his best form is on the AW he did run well to be 5th to Sir Busker at Ascot on his penultimate start. He looks up against it however.
 
ANOTHER TOUCH – Trainer Richard Fahey – Jockey Paul Hanagan – current odds 40/1
Has been a good servant over the years but is thoroughly exposed and would prefer softer ground. He looks too high in the weights and a very unlikely winner.
 
CHATEZ – Trainer Alan King – Jockey Martin Harley – Current odds 50/1
Has a good record in big field handicaps, winning his last 2 races which have contained 20 runners or more, the latest just 5 races ago which came off a 4lb higher mark so he’s potentially very nicely treated. That was 18 months ago now but he’s not had very many races since, and although he only finished 8th on his most recent start last month he actually ran very well, making his effort on the wrong side of the track and that run can be seriously upgraded. He could be dangerous.
 
SUMMARY
A fiendishly difficult handicap and very hard to rule out many runners. There’s every chance TOP RANK could be a group horse running in a handicap and with plenty of out and out hold up horses he should get a lovely position early on. That comment also applies to PROMPTING, who has very few negatives and looks sure to go well. SHELIR is a horse I think can win a decent handicap but stall 1 might be his undoing. SIR BUSKER has been in great form but maybe too high in the weights now. MONTATHAM is an improving horse and should go well. Course specialists WHAT’S THE STORY and FIRMAMENT could both run with credit but I find it hard to see either being good enough to win. ORBAAN is  interesting at nice odds. CHATEZ has a great record in big fields and is a huge price.
 
SUGGESTED BETS
 
0.5 points win TOP RANK 9/2
0.5 points each way CHATEZ 50/1 (5 places, 1/5th) 

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Our ToTM for February:
Cotswold Racing

Key stats:

Points profit:
ROI %:

36.00
86.10%

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Quick stat – ROI

Ed Culham:
Cotswold:
Rendlesham:
JV Bets:
Apollo:
NMW Racing:
Racing Raider:
-1.80%
13.96%
9.33%
1.54%
10.50%
43.81%
17.47%

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Quick stat – Monthly profit

Ed Culham:
Cotswold:
Rendlesham:
JV Bets:
Apollo:
NMW Racing:
Racing Raider:
-£6
£110
£81
£51
£74
£225
£78
£107

To £10 stakes

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Quick stat – Strike rate

Ed Culham:
Cotswold:
Rendlesham:
JV Bets:
Apollo:
NMW Racing:
Racing Raider:
27.79
31.05%
31.32%
26.97%
17.76%
29.78%

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