Lynton's Longshots

Example Write Up from Lynton’s Longshots

MILIAT 40/1 WINNER – 29/09/2023

Here’s my fancy for tomorrow where we head back to Ireland in an attempt to find another winner. She is related to winners and won a barrier trial at this course earlier in the month, so I hope she will go well. I am also a fan of the Slattery team who have brought me success before, including with their juveniles.

She is trained by Andrew Slattery, a trainer who is only 2-32 (6%) in the last 14 days, but who has had 7 placed efforts in that time, and is having a decent enough season overall. This is one of just two runners for him at Dundalk tomorrow, a track where he sends a large proportion of his horses, and although his juvenile form has tailed off of late, he has had winning newcomers in the past.

The ride is taken by his son, Andrew Slattery, who hasn’t ridden a winner in the last 14 days, but who is a very capable jockey. He has ridden 3 placed efforts in that time, including some other close calls, and he goes to Dundalk for just 2 rides tomorrow. He does have success when riding for his father, and is no stranger to Dundalk, so I hope he can give her a good spin.

Looking into her breeding, we find that she is a €30,000 yearling who is related to several winners. She is half-sister to Galador (6-8.5f winner inc 2y/o) and Sea My Soul (1m 2y/o) whilst also being closely related to Princess Plumeria (6f AW) and her dam being out of a US 1m3f Listed winner. There is a nice blend of speed and stamina there, including at 2 and on this surface, so conditions should suit first time out.

Her sire, Kodiac, was useful over this sort of distance and has established himself as a leading sire. He has a stud fee of £40,000 and is a leading source of speed, so it is not bad thing to be sirer by him. He has sired a whopping 125 horses to achieve an OR of 100+ and does well with his 2y/o’s, including at this sort of trip, so that bodes well.

Her dam, Silent Confession, was unraced, but well related to winners over middle-distances, and she has had some success as a broodmare. She has produced 4 horses to date, two disappointing, and the other two, Princess Plumeria and Galador (as above) winners over 6f. There is some promise in the breeding and this trip shouldn’t be an issue, nor should the surface, so I hope she will show promise on debut, having already won a barrier trial here.

As for tomorrow’s race, there are a lot of newcomers involved, so it is a bit of a guessing game, and the four with form have already proven they are beatable. Grand Job has shown decent form but proved to be weak in a finish, Gentileschi has experience and is consistent, but consistently finds a few too good so needs more, September Leaves was supported on debut and should progress, so should show more this time, but was disappointing, and Vive Veuve was highly tried last time and is back in calmer waters here, but needs more for win purposes. Of the newcomers, Quadruple is out of Frankel, well-related, and bred to be quick, so could definitely be involved, Osprey is from a top yard and also bred to be quick, but it is perhaps surprising she is over 7f here, Lily Hart is sister to winners but may just need this, Starry Dew is well-related but again may need time and slightly further, Whispersinthewind looks a likely type on breeding so needs considering, Vina Arana is related to winners and won a barrier trial, so clearly has ability, and Ciste Fionnta is related to winners over this sort of trip, but was a cheap buy and may be one for another day. The remainder all have some promise in pedigree, but will need to be smart to take a hand here. It is an open race with a large number who look to have a good chance, but I hope the initial barrier trial experience will help our pick, and if she can step forward from that, which she won, she should have the ability to get competitive here.

Dundalk doesn’t seem to suit any style in particular, and it is a pretty fair course, so shouldn’t cause any problems. As for a draw bias, there is a small bias favouring low draws over 7f, but it isn’t necessarily significant. That said, our pick being drawn in 9 shouldn’t be an issue.